September 01, 2004

The chemistry and math of crime

Some Euros are saying that all people who commit crimes are, essentially, crazy. There must be some neurochemical reason why people commit these crimes, whether a psychiatrist can see the reason -- schizophrenia, battered wife syndrome -- or not -- complex combination of genetic and/or historical factors. Essentially, this is a result of the belief that people have no free will. Wolf Singer, the [current] proponent of this idea, says it wouldn't bring big changes to the way we treat criminals.

He also suggests that we stop giving so much weight to what I've heard folks call "moral luck" -- a drunk driver who gets pulled over by a cop is, this theory goes, no worse than a drunk driver who runs over a little girl. One problem with this idea is that you'll never really be able to keep track of all of the things that people are doing wrong; you could [only in theory] mine down to an infinite degree of detail to see that there are thousands of things you are doing every day that introduce some small likelihood of some negative effect.

I guess another way of looking at this is that cops will never catch everybody who commits a particular crime, so the legal system punishes those who are caught for some of those who aren't [or for those occasions on which the same violator is not caught], in an effort to make the overall risk-benefit calculation closer to how we want it.

Say we have someone who drives drunk often. If we say that the average cost to society of a drunk drive is 100 points, but that this guy will only get caught one out of ten times, then we should hit him with a 1000-point punishment when the cops do catch him. So he must think about the fact that he probably won't get caught, but if he does, he'll have a big penalty. If we were to only penalize him 100 points, and he still were going to get caught only one out of ten times, then he would be perfectly happy to continue driving drunk all the time. Until cops can see everywhere [which would severely suck, mind you], moral luck will be a significant factor in the justice system. Get used to it.


One thing to keep in mind is that we do already use a widespread method of decreasing the importance of moral luck: laws that prohibit actions that don't have certain negative effects, but only increased likelihoods of negative effects. For instance, speeding is illegal whether or not you hit anything. It's a way to moderate the risk-benefit calculation, so people are more likely to drive moderately rather than risking it all and guessing they won't be one of the few who do cause high-speed accidents.

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Comments

Re: your comments on using higher penalties as a deterrant to criminal behavior, on thing that has been mentioned in class here is that the deterrance effect does not at all scale linearly with greater penalties. Criminals are not rational, and they do not commit half as many crimes when the sentence is doubled. One thing that does correlate well, however, is the rate of capture. So, as much as it would suck to have cops everywhere, it's a pretty effective way to reduce the occurrance of crimes.

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