A big, steaming pile of mendacity has been coming down the pike for the past couple of months and is just now spilling out of the congressional sewer pipe. The Congressional Budget Office is now using "dynamic scoring" to estimate how various fiscal measures will affect the federal government's bottom line. Dynamic scoring means that the office will consider the various effects down the road from budget maneuvers they make now.
No one would debate that tax cuts will affect the economy and federal revenue down the line in some complicated ways. But everyone will debate exactly how much that effect will be. The CBO used to basically use "static scoring", wherein a $100b tax cut cost $100b. Now, that tax cut could cost $100b or save $100b, depending on how you look at it and massage your formulae. And you can get it to say whatever the hell you want it to.
The new head of the CBO, dynamic-scoring proponent, seems to be a fairly credible fellow. But there's no doubt that moving to dynamic scoring is adding a humongous amount of politics and bullshitting into the budgetary process. Isn't it theoretically possible, for instance, that the administration and Republicans in the Congress would want to use dynamic scoring so as to minimize the appearance of the humongous deficit the federal government's running up? Hmmm??
Conservative pundit types are similarly stoked about the move to dynamic scoring. Should someone tell them that when the CBO is a little friendlier to Democrats that dynamic scoring may show that spending hikes actually save the government money? Or that dynamic scoring just gives wrong results sometimes? Because some of them, like the House budget chair, seem to think that government spending will only have a negative effect on the economy.
Despite the fiddling, the deficit is still there, obvious as a penguin on an ice floe. [?]
Feh. Economics.
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