The California governor game is weird. Really weird. I am looking over the tea leaves and I'm getting some strange encouragement. I might be reading into things way too deeply, but this is what I got: Schwarzenegger may win the recall election -- and be an enormous boost to the Democrats.
Crazy, you say? Outlandish, you claim? Genius, I know!
This is why: One of the biggest Republicans' greatest strengths in their two-decade-long surge to dominance -- starting with the Reagan Revolution, continuing with Gingrich's Contract With America, and culminating with the unification of all the federal branches under firm Republican control under Bush II -- is that the party, tired of being increasingly shafted during the 60s and 70s, found a way to stick together and keep their interests unified, despite some significant differences.
Reagan, a real wizard in some real important ways, created the Republicans' 11th commandment: "Thou shall not attack a fellow Republican." This meant that Bible-thumpers from Mississippi shouldn't snap at pro-choice senators from Maine. If you want to be in the majority, which is really the critical question, then you suck it up and make friends with 51% of all the legislators, no matter what they say.
Republicans showed much more fortitude for this type of alliance than Democrats over that same time. The DLC, frinstance, now tries to tear into my secret admiree, Howard Dean, for being unelectable. Clinton, it seems, was fairly unique in his ability to somehow hold much of it together. [I suspect this had to do with a combination of compassionate, liberal attitude; a few strong stands on traditionally liberal, rights-type issues; and co-option of moderate/conservative positions on the economy.] Nader's run, deliberately trying to push Gore to the left, was a noteable factor in the Gore's loss. If all those Nader voters had made a similar decision to aim for 51%, even if they had to compromise, Gore would no doubt be president.
So now the Republican boom is at or near its apex. But guess what's happening: Their alliance for victory is starting to show signs of weakness. First there was James Jeffords, who bolted the party because it had shifted too far right and he couldn't get anywhere with his fairly liberal legislative agenda. Surely, Jeffords' disgruntlement reflecting something broader in like-minded moderate Northeastern, West Coast, and upper-Midwest Republicans. These are people are basically socially liberal. They like small government, not Bible government. They support gun and reproductive rights. They think there might be a little room between 'with us' and 'with the terrorists'. Where have all these moderate Republicans gone?
Well, they've been hiding in the Republican party, stoked that they were in that winning 51%. But aren't these people pissed to be led by Bush, Cheney, and Asscock? How long will they stay under this maniacally conservative yoke? Perhaps not that long.
That's where Schwarzenegger comes into play. Arianna Huffington says Schwarzenegger is "a Bush Republican through and through." How goddamn wrong can you be? Schwarzenegger is very clearly a pretty socially liberal guy. Not a born-again. Not a thumper. And he even has [gasp] Democratic friends. In fact, he's pulling a bunch of those Democratic friends aboard his campaign: Maria Shriver, Rob Lowe, Warren Buffett, Bonnie Reiss, etc. [It's true that Cheney did hold onto one of Clinton's undersecretaries in State, but only because he negotiated a plum, twisted deal for Halliburton.] Laurence Leamer, a friend of Schwarzenegger and Shriver and biographer of the Shriver clan, says what must strike fear into the heart of Karl Rove: "Arnold's greatest contribution to American life may be that he will resurrect the liberal wing of the Republican Party. Some of these right-wing ideologues don't understand that yet. I think he's a new kind of Republican."
[BIG GASP!!] This is absolute heresy to the Republicans! Could this be why Bush refuses to campaign for Schwarzenegger, despite the fact that he is the clear front-runner to put an elephant at the top of California, which has more than 1/5 of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency? Hell, yeah! Bush doesn't want there to be a 'liberal wing of the Republican Party' or a 'new kind of Republican'. [If you want to see how this tension could very conceivably play out, consider this: Warren Buffett just came out with a clear condemnation of California's low property tax, which is limited by Proposition 13, passed in 1978. Could the economic advisor of a Republican governor of a huge state be telling him to raise taxes? What would BushCorp say?]
You might say No, Bush doesn't mind the liberal wing of the Republican Party, as long as he's in the White House and he's got the majority of the House, Senate, and SCOTUS. True, BushCorp may be able to hold the two wings together for a while. But before too long, the liberal wing will grow in power and will become outwardly resentful that it is a piece of shit in the Republican Party. I see two potentialities:
1] The liberal wing grabs back a bunch of power somehow and regains some stature in the national party, turning the country away from its rabidly conservative current direction, or
2] There is no easy way to keep both sides happy and in the same tent. What happens? I'm not too sure, but it could be big upheaval. Possibly as big as the entire shift of the South from solid Democrat to solid Republican. Idonno, but either way, the Republican Party is not long to be dominated so forcefully by the hard-right, as it is now.
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