Ridley uses three different metaphors to convey the idea of observation that falls short of proof. None of them are individually good enough to earn their way to thinkness' esteemed Chronic section, but in toto they squeak by:
'A man cuts the legs off a flea to test his theory that the fleas' ears are on their legs. He then tells the flea to jump and it does not, so he concludes that he was right; fleas' ears are in their legs.'
'Crossing over is like an elephant repellent. You know it's working because you don't see any elephants.'
'One scientist gives the analogy of somebody trying to decide what makes his driveway wet: rain, lawn sprinklers, or flooding from the local river. It is no good turning on the sprinkler and observing that it wets the drive or watching rain fall and seeing that it wets the drive.'
[He says this last mistake is the 'fallacy of affirming the consequent' -- a.k.a. post hoc ergo propter hoc?]
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